Politics
A path to Ukrainian peace: Beyond exaggerated expectations
The protracted, attritional war that Russia has waged against Ukraine for nearly three years has led analysts and political leaders alike to ponder how to end this war as soon as possible and achieve a lasting peace.
Increasingly, proposals are emerging to apply a model similar to the one implemented in Germany after World War II. Adapting to Ukraine would mean that it would never relinquish the annexed territories, and the West would never recognise these territories as Russian.
However, Ukraine would accept the reality that it cannot reclaim the occupied territories through force and would commit to a non-violent approach.
In exchange, Ukraine would demand concrete, not merely symbolic, security guarantees that Russia would not repeat its aggression against Ukraine.
Just recently, both Czech President Petr Pavel and outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have expressed themselves along a similar vein. So, what is preventing the implementation of such a solution?
I would say that a problem lies in the exaggerated and unrealistic expectations held by Ukrainian citizens and a significant part of the democratic world.
This is a common phenomenon within the political sphere. Unrealistic expectations can be inadvertently cultivated not only by populists but also by well-intentioned politicians who make excessive promises to their constituents.
Such expectations pose a significant risk, not merely to the politicians who propagate them, but more importantly to the communities they represent, as these communities may find themselves on a perilous path with limited options for reversal.
Can we really make Putin kneel?
It appears that Ukraine has experienced precisely this phenomenon. The initial Ukrainian successes, including the defence of Kyiv against a blitzkrieg (a rapid invasion by Russian airborne troops at the outset of the war), the defence of Kharkiv, and the subsequent daring counteroffensive, led both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and parts of the West to experience euphoria and to foster expectations of a Ukrainian victory over Russia, with Western support.
These expectations included the notion of expelling Russian forces from all occupied territories, including Crimea.
Russian soldiers guard a pier where two Ukrainian naval vessels are moored, in Sevastopol, March 2014 AP Photo
The West is also to blame for creating these exaggerated, unrealistic expectations. Some leaders hoped to persuade Putin to back down or at least suspend his operation. In the case of Ukraine, the granting of EU candidate status was considered by many to be something that was not even on the table.
Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.
However, it seems to me that President Zelensky also made a key mistake by not involving the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition in solving the problem.
On the contrary, there have been reports here and there that Ukrainian border guards have not allowed the leader of the opposition, former President Petro Poroshenko, to leave Ukraine.
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has repeatedly expressed his criticism of the president. There are no known joint negotiations by the wider Ukrainian political leadership to seek a common solution to the key issues of the war.
I believe Zelenskyy should do this
And that’s how misinformation spreads. For example, the idea that these are various nationalist, if not outright fascist, units of Ukrainian fighters who are preventing President Zelenskyy from making any compromises.
In reality, it is the Ukrainian president himself who has manoeuvred himself into a position where the opposition will not proactively help him, and his voters will have a hard time understanding a potential change of approach to ending the war and thus will also have a hard time accepting any compromise.
Politics
Breaking News: I am An Igbo Man, Anioma is Igbo, Nothing like Delta Igbo. We are all Igbos – Ifeanyi Okowa
JUST IN: Governor Sim Fubara Signs N1.1 trillion Rivers state 2025 Budget Into Law.
His Excellency, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, has signed into law the 2025 Rivers State Appropriation Bill, totaling 1.1 trillion naira.
Below are the statements of His Excellency as he signed into law the Appropriation Bill, tagged “Budget of Inclusive Growth & Development.”
“Let me first thank the Rivers State House of Assembly for doing a very diligent job and also realizing that what we have ahead of us is to continue to work for Rivers people. So, I want to thank you for working very, very hard and ensuring that we hit the ground running in this new year.”
“I want to say this, maybe for some persons somewhere who are still mixing up issues: we have only one Assembly, and that Assembly is headed by Rt. Hon. Victor Oko Jumbo. A group of friends about nine or ten months ago embarked on what they call a “Sinbad Journey.” Halfway through the journey, while they were coasting, they realized they were entering into the den of devils and sharks. They now retrieved, but it is too late. The truth is, we are not going back. We have given enough room for peace. As it stands now, our majority target is the interest of Rivers State and to continue to defend the integrity of governance. As far as I’m concerned, we have moved on.”
“Let me thank everyone who made this possible. We made a promise to you that we would continue to keep the interests of Rivers State first. So now that this bill has been signed, I can assure you that every projection in it will be kickstarted so that the record of performance accorded to this administration in the year 2024 will be surpassed in this year.”
“Let me thank my management team, that is, my exco, for all the support, most especially my deputy and everyone—the Commissioner for Finance, Budget, and the acting Internal Revenue Chairman—for the wonderful job they did last year. We expect you to do more because we have a bigger task ahead of us.”
“We have made some promises to our people in education, health, and agriculture. We must ensure we make a good impact, just like we have done in the areas of road infrastructure and other aspects of the economy.”
“Let me, on this note, thank everyone and wish you a happy and prosperous New Year ahead as we continue the journey of making Rivers State great again.”
“Thank you.”
– John Martins®️
Thursday, 02 January, 2025
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