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A path to Ukrainian peace: Beyond exaggerated expectations

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The protracted, attritional war that Russia has waged against Ukraine for nearly three years has led analysts and political leaders alike to ponder how to end this war as soon as possible and achieve a lasting peace.

Increasingly, proposals are emerging to apply a model similar to the one implemented in Germany after World War II. Adapting to Ukraine would mean that it would never relinquish the annexed territories, and the West would never recognise these territories as Russian.

However, Ukraine would accept the reality that it cannot reclaim the occupied territories through force and would commit to a non-violent approach.

In exchange, Ukraine would demand concrete, not merely symbolic, security guarantees that Russia would not repeat its aggression against Ukraine.

Just recently, both Czech President Petr Pavel and outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have expressed themselves along a similar vein. So, what is preventing the implementation of such a solution?

I would say that a problem lies in the exaggerated and unrealistic expectations held by Ukrainian citizens and a significant part of the democratic world.

This is a common phenomenon within the political sphere. Unrealistic expectations can be inadvertently cultivated not only by populists but also by well-intentioned politicians who make excessive promises to their constituents.

Such expectations pose a significant risk, not merely to the politicians who propagate them, but more importantly to the communities they represent, as these communities may find themselves on a perilous path with limited options for reversal.

Can we really make Putin kneel?

It appears that Ukraine has experienced precisely this phenomenon. The initial Ukrainian successes, including the defence of Kyiv against a blitzkrieg (a rapid invasion by Russian airborne troops at the outset of the war), the defence of Kharkiv, and the subsequent daring counteroffensive, led both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and parts of the West to experience euphoria and to foster expectations of a Ukrainian victory over Russia, with Western support.

These expectations included the notion of expelling Russian forces from all occupied territories, including Crimea.

Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.

Russian soldiers guard a pier where two Ukrainian naval vessels are moored, in Sevastopol, March 2014 AP Photo

The West is also to blame for creating these exaggerated, unrealistic expectations. Some leaders hoped to persuade Putin to back down or at least suspend his operation. In the case of Ukraine, the granting of EU candidate status was considered by many to be something that was not even on the table.

Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.

However, it seems to me that President Zelensky also made a key mistake by not involving the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition in solving the problem.

On the contrary, there have been reports here and there that Ukrainian border guards have not allowed the leader of the opposition, former President Petro Poroshenko, to leave Ukraine.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has repeatedly expressed his criticism of the president. There are no known joint negotiations by the wider Ukrainian political leadership to seek a common solution to the key issues of the war.

I believe Zelenskyy should do this

And that’s how misinformation spreads. For example, the idea that these are various nationalist, if not outright fascist, units of Ukrainian fighters who are preventing President Zelenskyy from making any compromises.

In reality, it is the Ukrainian president himself who has manoeuvred himself into a position where the opposition will not proactively help him, and his voters will have a hard time understanding a potential change of approach to ending the war and thus will also have a hard time accepting any compromise.

He should invite the parliamentary opposition to the negotiating table, lay his cards on it and try to find a broad political consensus among Ukrainian leaders in an open discussion on the future arrangement of relations with Russia.

Therefore, I believe that the president of Ukraine should change his approach, first and foremost towards the representatives of the Ukrainian political opposition.

Instead of the pompous global peace summits that are doomed to failure in advance, instead of the “victory plans” that President Zelenskyy is presenting to world leaders (which, it seems, are just a new version of older demands), he should organise a peace summit at home, in Kyiv.

He should invite the parliamentary opposition to the negotiating table, lay his cards on it and try to find a broad political consensus among Ukrainian leaders in an open discussion on the future arrangement of relations with Russia.

Agreeing on necessary compromises

Undoubtedly, the price for such a change in approach could be a demand from the opposition to participate in the governance of Ukraine. There may also be other political demands.

In any case, the upside of such demands would be substantial: a broad political consensus among the Ukrainian political elite, which would begin to address Ukrainian citizens in a common, unified language.

Only in this way is it possible to agree to the compromises that are necessary to end the war and establish a sustainable peace. At the same time, these compromises in no way mean capitulation or resignation to a part of Ukrainian territory.

Mikuláš Dzurinda is president of Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the EPP-affiliated think-tank, and former prime minister of Slovakia.

Politics

Joe Igbokwe urges Gov Soludo to investigate native doctor Akwa Okuko

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Joe Igbokwe, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, APC, has called for a thorough investigation into the activities of a well-known native doctor in Anambra State, Chidozie Nwangwu, popularly referred to as Akwa Okuko.

In a statement shared on his Facebook page, Igbokwe expressed suspicion regarding the native doctor, who was among those arraigned by the Anambra State Police on Friday, suggesting he may be involved in activities beyond what is publicly known.

He appealed to Governor Charles Soludo to address the growing influence of native doctors with the seriousness it demands, lamenting the worsening security crisis plaguing the South-East.

“I beg Governor SOLUDO in the name of God Almighty to thoroughly and meticulously investigate this man called Akwa Okuko,” he wrote.

“I have previously raised concerns about this young man when he was reportedly kidnapped for failing to honour an agreement with his partners in crime.

“I saw some peculiar elderly women in his house, singing and offering prayers on his behalf. At that time, I remarked that this young man was involved in something far more complex and ought to be thoroughly investigated. The backlash I received was overwhelming — insults and invectives poured in from all sides.

“There is no adult of Igbo extraction in the South-East who is unaware of what is happening in the region, yet we choose to maintain a graveyard silence.

“I have never witnessed such a deep-seated conspiracy in the mind of a people who lost nearly everything between 1966 and 1970 — and yet, over fifty years later, we have returned to the same vomit.”

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Otti orders investigation as Fire Service officials switch off phones during fire disaster in Aba

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Governor Alex Otti of Abia State has directed his Senior Special Assistant on Homeland Security to carry out an investigation to find out what actually led to the inferno that engulfed a two-storey building at 73 Lagos Street Aba, this week.

This is as he expressed dismay that the phone numbers of Fire Service officials in Aba were reportedly switched off when the fire was ravaging the building.

Otti, who paid a visit to the victims on Friday, commiserated with them and promised that his administration would assist them and provide temporary accommodations for them.

He thanked God that no life was lost and stressed the need for every household to have a fire extinguisher, and directed that henceforth, there is going to be enforcement of compulsory fire extinguisher in all households.

He directed that a thorough investigation should be conducted to ascertain why the phone numbers were off during such an emergency and to determine if the inferno was natural or the carelessness of the occupants.

“It’s quite unfortunate that the fire service could not come on time, normally they arrive within ten minutes and I am surprised the way this one turned out.

“I have directed them to do a thorough investigation to ascertain why the phone numbers of fire service officers were off during the fire outbreak.

“I need to get a report about the fire service officers and why their phones were put off and this whole place burnt down completely,” Otti fumed.

Narrating their ordeals, the landlord of the building, Mr. Vincent Uzuegbu, his family and a tenant in the building, Mr. Obinna Obi and his wife, said that they were asleep when the fire started, adding that they lost everything.

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Supreme Court: Abure’s sack will restore peace, order in LP – Otti

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Governor Alex Otti of Abia State says the Supreme Court judgement on Friday, which sacked the Julius Abure- led National Working Committee of Labour Party, LP, will pave the way for the return of peace, unity and order in the party.

Otti, who was reacting to the Court ruling, said the leadership of the party has been vindicated.

According to him, the tenure of the Abure-led National Working Committee had long expired which informed the decision to set up the National Caretaker Committee led by Esther Nenadi Usman as Chairman and Darlington Nwokocha as secretary.

Governor Otti added that the vision behind the setting up of the committee was to foster peace and unity, while strengthening the party to consolidate on the gains made in the last election.

Governor Otti commended the Supreme Court for its sound judgement, which he said met the popular expectations of genuine Labour Party members in particular, and Nigerians in general and thanked those who kept faith while the battle for the soul of the party lasted.

Otti further invited the former national officers of the party to join hands with the National Executive Committee, NEC and the National Caretaker Committee, NCC, of the party to move the party forward, assuring that he and other leaders of the party were committed to building an all-inclusive party devoid of discrimination and favoritism.

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