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A path to Ukrainian peace: Beyond exaggerated expectations

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The protracted, attritional war that Russia has waged against Ukraine for nearly three years has led analysts and political leaders alike to ponder how to end this war as soon as possible and achieve a lasting peace.

Increasingly, proposals are emerging to apply a model similar to the one implemented in Germany after World War II. Adapting to Ukraine would mean that it would never relinquish the annexed territories, and the West would never recognise these territories as Russian.

However, Ukraine would accept the reality that it cannot reclaim the occupied territories through force and would commit to a non-violent approach.

In exchange, Ukraine would demand concrete, not merely symbolic, security guarantees that Russia would not repeat its aggression against Ukraine.

Just recently, both Czech President Petr Pavel and outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have expressed themselves along a similar vein. So, what is preventing the implementation of such a solution?

I would say that a problem lies in the exaggerated and unrealistic expectations held by Ukrainian citizens and a significant part of the democratic world.

This is a common phenomenon within the political sphere. Unrealistic expectations can be inadvertently cultivated not only by populists but also by well-intentioned politicians who make excessive promises to their constituents.

Such expectations pose a significant risk, not merely to the politicians who propagate them, but more importantly to the communities they represent, as these communities may find themselves on a perilous path with limited options for reversal.

Can we really make Putin kneel?

It appears that Ukraine has experienced precisely this phenomenon. The initial Ukrainian successes, including the defence of Kyiv against a blitzkrieg (a rapid invasion by Russian airborne troops at the outset of the war), the defence of Kharkiv, and the subsequent daring counteroffensive, led both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and parts of the West to experience euphoria and to foster expectations of a Ukrainian victory over Russia, with Western support.

These expectations included the notion of expelling Russian forces from all occupied territories, including Crimea.

Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.

Russian soldiers guard a pier where two Ukrainian naval vessels are moored, in Sevastopol, March 2014 AP Photo

The West is also to blame for creating these exaggerated, unrealistic expectations. Some leaders hoped to persuade Putin to back down or at least suspend his operation. In the case of Ukraine, the granting of EU candidate status was considered by many to be something that was not even on the table.

Talk of the West’s vast economic and military superiority also contributed to the illusion that, eventually, Putin will kneel.

However, it seems to me that President Zelensky also made a key mistake by not involving the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition in solving the problem.

On the contrary, there have been reports here and there that Ukrainian border guards have not allowed the leader of the opposition, former President Petro Poroshenko, to leave Ukraine.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has repeatedly expressed his criticism of the president. There are no known joint negotiations by the wider Ukrainian political leadership to seek a common solution to the key issues of the war.

I believe Zelenskyy should do this

And that’s how misinformation spreads. For example, the idea that these are various nationalist, if not outright fascist, units of Ukrainian fighters who are preventing President Zelenskyy from making any compromises.

In reality, it is the Ukrainian president himself who has manoeuvred himself into a position where the opposition will not proactively help him, and his voters will have a hard time understanding a potential change of approach to ending the war and thus will also have a hard time accepting any compromise.

He should invite the parliamentary opposition to the negotiating table, lay his cards on it and try to find a broad political consensus among Ukrainian leaders in an open discussion on the future arrangement of relations with Russia.

Therefore, I believe that the president of Ukraine should change his approach, first and foremost towards the representatives of the Ukrainian political opposition.

Instead of the pompous global peace summits that are doomed to failure in advance, instead of the “victory plans” that President Zelenskyy is presenting to world leaders (which, it seems, are just a new version of older demands), he should organise a peace summit at home, in Kyiv.

He should invite the parliamentary opposition to the negotiating table, lay his cards on it and try to find a broad political consensus among Ukrainian leaders in an open discussion on the future arrangement of relations with Russia.

Agreeing on necessary compromises

Undoubtedly, the price for such a change in approach could be a demand from the opposition to participate in the governance of Ukraine. There may also be other political demands.

In any case, the upside of such demands would be substantial: a broad political consensus among the Ukrainian political elite, which would begin to address Ukrainian citizens in a common, unified language.

Only in this way is it possible to agree to the compromises that are necessary to end the war and establish a sustainable peace. At the same time, these compromises in no way mean capitulation or resignation to a part of Ukrainian territory.

Mikuláš Dzurinda is president of Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the EPP-affiliated think-tank, and former prime minister of Slovakia.

Politics

US will stay in NATO, but it must be ‘stronger’, Marco Rubio tells his 31 counterparts

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Rubio at NATO © Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reassured NATO allies of the US’ commitment to the military transatlantic alliance at his first meeting of NATO foreign affairs ministers, while recalling Donald Trump’s message that the European countries and Canada need to further increase defence spending.

“The United States President Trump’s made clear he supports NATO, we’re going to remain in NATO,” Rubio told reporters in Brussels, stressing that the US wants the alliance to be stronger against any potential threat.

“The only way NATO can get stronger and more viable is if our partners, the nation states that comprise this important alliance, have more capability,” he added.

The top US diplomat said he expects to leave Brussels with a clear commitment from allies to spend 5% of their GDP on defence—an increase from the current 2%, which some European countries, such as Belgium, Italy, and Spain, still fail to meet.

“I understand there’s domestic politics after decades of building up vast social safety net that maybe don’t want to take away from that and invest more in national security, but a full-scale ground war in the heart of Europe is a reminder that hard power is still necessary as a deterrent,” he said.

Rubio’s comments come after Donald Trump said last month that the US would not defend its allies unless they increased burden-sharing within the alliance. “It’s common sense, right,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office in early March. “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.”

The transatlantic alliance is currently assessing its capability gaps before committing to a new defence spending target, but a final figure is not expected until the annual NATO summit in June in The Hague.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stressed that European NATO members have recently committed to the largest increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War, though he agreed with the US that more must be done.

“It’s my assumption that what we need to spend, the Canadians and Europeans together, will be north of 3%,” the former Dutch prime minister said on his way in to the two-day meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers in Brussels.

Rubio stressed that raising defence spending to 5% cannot be done “in one year or two”, but the US now demands a real way forward from its allies to build a stronger NATO capable of defending its territories.

The NATO chief also warned that the global security threats facing the Alliance are increasingly interconnected and that the Russian threat will persist for many years.

“We are seeing what China is doing. We’re seeing how these two theatres, the inner Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic are getting more and more connected by the fact that the Russians are working together with the North Koreans, with the Chinese, with Iran, so we have to look at all these theatres in conjunction and that will be our focus,” he said.

European NATO members are also expecting clear messages or a roadmap from Rubio regarding the US withdrawal of troops from Europe, where around 100,000 American soldiers are stationed. However, the US secretary of state has not yet addressed the issue, and Rutte indicated that no immediate drawdown is planned.

“There are no plans for them (the US) to all of a sudden draw down their presence here in Europe, but we know that for America being the superpower they are they have to attend to more theatres than one,” Rutte said.

Some NATO members consider that the US could reduce its presence by some 20,000 to 50,000 troops.

The NATO secretary general acknowledged that the US has long sought to pivot its attention toward the Indo-Pacific but assured that it will be done “in a very coordinated manner.”

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Security: Abia govt to keep close watch on traditional rulers, confirms kidnap victim’s release

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Abia State government has again, warned traditional rulers in the state against harbouring criminals in their communities, saying that they would be placed under watch.

The warning was sounded at Government House Umuahia by the Commissioner for Information, Okey Kanu, on Wednesday, while briefing Journalists on the outcome of this week’s executive council meeting presided over by Governor Alex Otti.

The State government also cautioned town union leaders to be vigilant and report all cases of suspicious movements involving criminal elements in their areas to security agents.

The Commissioner who disclosed that a popular businessman who was kidnapped in Ukwa East LGA a few weeks ago has been released, said that the State government would be using security agencies to beam light on all traditional rulers, to ascertain those who harbour criminals in their domains.

“As is usual with security matters, I may not want to go into details of what happened to the businessman, but the state government is advising Abians to remain vigilant. Town unions and traditional rulers must be alive to their duties of keeping watch over their domains.

“The state government is frowning seriously at this and the warning is that if you are caught in the act of harbouring criminals, you will be treated as one”, said Kanu.

He advised all commercial vehicle operators who have registered their vehicles in the ongoing registration policy to do so as strict enforcement of the initiative would soon start.

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Recall: INEC declares petition against Natasha inadequate

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Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan
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ABUJA: The Independent National Electoral Commission INEC on Thursday said the petition to recall the Senator representing Kogi Central, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan has not met the requirements of the constitution.

INEC in a tweet on its ‘X’ handle said; “The petition for the recall of the Senator representing the Kogi Central Senatorial District has not met the requirement of Section 69(a) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended)”.

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