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Australian consumers could end up paying more than $50 a kilo for steak at the supermarket as a result of Donald Trump‘s tariffs on agriculture exports, farmers say.
A kilogram of rump steak at Woolworths is now selling for $28.
But the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance, representing 350 small-scale farmers, fears rump steak will end of costing Australian consumers $56 at the supermarket.
Spokeswoman Tammi Jonas, an organic beef cattle producer from Daylesford in Victoria, said the American tariffs on agricultural imports would see more countries buy Australian beef to avoid trading with the US.
‘We already know there’s high demand for Australian beef around the world and I think that’s just going to get higher,’ she told Daily Mail Australia.
‘In a global supply crunch like this, we could see rump steak climb past $50 per kilogram.
‘That’s not a family dinner – that’s a premium luxury.’
Dr Jonas said higher export prices would see less Australian meat sold to domestic consumers.
Australian consumers could end up paying more than $50 a kilo for steak as a result of Donald Trump ‘s tariffs on agriculture exports, farmers say (pictured is a Coles supermarket)
‘I would say there’s a strong likelihood of that, yes,’ she said.
‘And even if we still have enough beef sold within Australia, the prices are certain to go up.
‘Whenever you’re in those global markets, you roll with the volatility and if they can get a really high price overseas, they’re not going to charge less for domestic sales.’
But Angus Gidley-Baird, a senior analyst in animal protein with RaboResearch, said more expensive steak at the supermarket was unlikely, given the strong supply of Australian beef with the recent rainfall.
‘We produced record volumes of beef last year, I don’t see why there would be a shortage in the domestic market that would cause prices to rise,’ he told Daily Mail Australia.
‘The exports are effectively our markets that we sell the additional production into.’
Meat and Livestock Australia data showed the US was Australia’s biggest market for beef exports in 2024, putting it well ahead of Japan, South Korea and China.
Of the beef sent to the United States, 96 per cent of it was the leaner, grass fed variety that was either chilled or frozen.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance fears rump steak will end of costing Australian consumers $56 at the supermarket. Spokeswoman Tammi Jonas (left) said the American tariffs on agricultural imports would see more countries buy Australian beef to avoid trading with the US
The Americans have been in the grip of a drought, and most of their beef is fattier, grain-fed.
South American beef exporters Argentina and Brazil are also dealing with a lack of rainfall, which means demand for Australian beef would continue to be strong.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the Americans, who produced fattier, grain-fed beef, would still need the leaner, Australian grass-fed beef to make hamburger patties, regardless of import tariffs.
‘The US still continues to need imported product because they’re not producing as much themselves,’ he said.
‘They’ll still need Australian beef – the drought, it’s getting better in the US but they’ve liquidated their herd and production volumes are down.
‘What Australia sends to the US complements their production system over there in that it balances out the fatter product they’re producing for hamburger production.
‘They need the product and we’re one of the biggest suppliers of it – me being rational would still say that they would still buy it.’
At the margins, strong American demand for grass-fed beef had pushed up prices for Australian lean mince, now selling for $15.50 a kilo at Woolworths.
The Trump Administration’s tariffs of up to 25 per cent on agricultural imports are coming into affect on Thursday, along with tariffs on pharmaceutical products (President Donald Trump is pictured in the White House)
‘The US market has been very strong – it’s demanding a fair amount of product which is putting a bit of pressure on mince prices, lean product prices,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance sees mince prices more than doubling to $36 a kilo.
But Dr Jonas predicted possible tariffs of up to 25 per cent on Australian beef would see American demand plunge, despite the fact they are in drought with an undersupply of grass-fed beef.
‘I think with a 25 per cent tariff they won’t be able to afford it – Americans are in as big a cost-of-living crisis as Australians are and they can’t handle a 25 per cent tariff on top of the higher meat price of imported Australian beef,’ she said.
The Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance didn’t do specific economic modelling on Australian beef prices, as a result of the Trump tariffs on agriculture coming into effect on Thursday.
But it argued China’s African swine flu in 2019 led to a doubling of pork prices, as supply fell by 40 per cent.
The alliance campaigns against agribusiness giants like JBS Foods Australia, which owns feedlots and abattoirs.
‘The local farmers like us are losing access to the facilities to slaughter,’ Dr Jonas said.
‘While that sounds like a good thing for Australia – when we think, “We can export more” – the reality of that is very few people profit from that higher export.’
The Trump Administration’s tariffs of up to 25 per cent on agricultural imports are coming into effect on Thursday, along with tariffs on pharmaceutical products.
‘If it’s a large tariff but applied to everyone, our competitive position remains the same,’ Mr Gidley-Baird said.
They follow 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium, introduced on March 12.
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