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Asian markets rise ahead of US election, Chinese stimulus meeting

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Asian markets rise ahead of US election, Chinese stimulus meeting

 

Asian markets rose Monday as investors steel themselves for a too-close-to-call US presidential election, while Chinese leaders meet to hammer out a stimulus package that experts say could be determined by the vote.

The gains came after a positive lead from Wall Street and data showing far fewer US jobs were created last month than expected, boosting hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut when it gathers this week.

With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump neck and neck ahead of Tuesday’s poll, traders are keeping a close eye on any hint of an advantage either way.

The dollar slipped Monday as a fresh opinion poll in Iowa — which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 — showed Harris leading.

A victory for Trump is seen as being positive for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields owing to his pledges to cut taxes and impose hefty tariffs on imports.

Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives are also being closely watched amid speculation the Republicans could take control of both.

“It’s not just about who wins the presidency but also the composition of the House and Senate,” said Peter Esho, founder of Esho Capital.

“If the Republicans sweep all three, that will open the door to significant fiscal changes, which is negative for bondholders and could spell higher yields until the dust settles.”

The election comes days before the Fed is due to make its latest policy decision, with investors expecting 25-basis-point reduction after a bumper 50-point cut at its last gathering.

The vote is of particular interest to China, where Beijing is this week meeting to hammer out an economic stimulus.

The concrete measures are expected to be announced Friday, allowing time for officials to digest the result and make allowances for either.

“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s Chief China Economist, in a research note.

Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.

“We are expecting more details on the proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics, including “how this extra funding would be allocated to address the near-term economic issues”.

Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around a trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget — mostly for indebted local governments.

Observers also expect Beijing to approve a one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.

Markets rose across Asia, with Hong Kong and Shanghai among the best performers, while Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington and Jakarta were also well up.

Oil prices rose more than one percent after eight members of the OPEC+ group of producers said Sunday they would extend supply cuts until the end of next month.

They had been delaying output hikes on worries about slowing demand in China and the United States.

The commodity was also being supported by geopolitical tensions after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned at the weekend that Israel and the United States “will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response” to Israeli attacks on October 26.

That strike was in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles against its rival.

Key figures around 0230 GMT

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 20,546.35

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,282.42

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0888 from $1.0833 on Friday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2975 from $1.2917

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.79 yen from 153.01 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 83.92 from 83.86 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.5 percent at $70.50 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.4 percent at $74.09 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,052.19 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.8 percent at 8,177.15 (close)

Politics

House Approves 2025-2027 MTEF

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House Approves 2025-2027 MTEF
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The House of Representatives has passed the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2025 to 2027 as submitted by President Bola Tinubu.

This followed the consideration and approval of the recommendations of the Joint Committee on Finance and National Planning which laid its report at Wednesday’s plenary.

The House adopted the projected oil benchmark prices pegged at 75 dollars per barrel for 2025, as well as 76.2 dollars and 75.3 dollars per barrel for 2026 and 2027.

Domestic Crude Oil Production Projections for 2025 is put at 2.06 million barrels per day representing a significant increase from 1.78 million barrels per day in the current year.

GDP growth rate is projected at 4.6, 4.4 and 5.5 percent for 2025 to 2027, respectively, while the projected exchange rate is pegged at 1,400 Naira to the US Dollar for years 2025, 2026 and 2027

The MTEF projections aim towards a realistic and sustainable foundation for Nigeria’s budget planning over the next three years.

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President Bola Tinubu has departed Abuja for Paris on a state visit in honour of an invitation from President Emmanuel Macron.

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President Bola Tinubu has departed Abuja for Paris on a state visit in honour of an invitation from President Emmanuel Macron.
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The president is on the trip alongside first lady, Oluremi.

They were seen off by top government functionaries led by secretary to the government of the federation, George Akume, chief of staff, Femi Gbajabiamila.

The presidential zero-one-one air plane took off at about twenty minutes past eleven this Wednesday morning.

A statement by the presidential adviser on information and strategy, Bayo Onanuga reveals that, the Nigerian leader’s three-day visit, which will focus on strengthening political, economic, and cultural relations and establishing more opportunities for partnership, promises significant benefits for Nigeria.

President Tinubu and his wife, are expected to be received on Thursday at the French military museum, Les Invalides and Palais de l’Élysée, by the host president, Macron and his spouse, Brigitte, for initial ceremonies that will dovetail into bilateral meetings.

The two presidents are also to harmonise positions on stimulating more interest in exchange programmes that focus on skill development for youths and improving their competencies in automation, entrepreneurship, innovation, and leadership.

Both leaders will witness a session by the France-Nigeria Business Council, which oversees private sector participation in economic development.

Wife of the host president, Brigitte and Nigeria’s First Lady are also scheduled to discuss the Renewed Hope Initiative and the interest for empowering women, children, and the most vulnerable in Nigeria.

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PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU APPOINTS JAMI’U ABIOLA AS SSA ON LINGUISTICS & FOREIGN MATTERS

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PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU APPOINTS JAMI’U ABIOLA AS SSA ON LINGUISTICS & FOREIGN MATTERS
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PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU APPOINTS JAMI’U ABIOLA AS SSA ON LINGUISTICS & FOREIGN MATTERS

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the appointment of Jami’u Abiola as the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Linguistics and Foreign Matters.

A statement by Segun Imohiosen, Director, Information & Public Relations Office the
Secretary to the Government of
the Federation says the appointment takes effect from 14th of this month. It adds that the appointment is in line with the provisions of the Certain Political and Judicial Office Holders (Salaries and Allowances, etc) Act 2008, as amended.

It notes that until the appointment, Jami’u served as the Special Assistant to the President on Special Duties in the Office of the Vice President.

President Tinubu tasks the appointee to work closely with the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs and bring his wealth of experience to bear in his new assignment.

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