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NASA increases the chance of ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hitting Earth
- READ MORE: Map reveals what will happen if the ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hits
The ‘city-destroying’ asteroid hurtling toward Earth is being carefully watched by hundreds of the world’s most powerful telescopes.
Now, NASA has quietly increased the chances that this deadly space rock will smash into the planet in 2032.
The space agency predicts that the asteroid 2024 YR4 has a one-in-38, or 2.6 per cent, chance of hitting.
Those are the same odds as having your number come up on a spin of a standard American roulette wheel.
When it was discovered in December last year, NASA estimated that the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting us were one in a thousand.
However, as more data has been gathered about its orbit, the impact probability has rapidly increased.
Currently, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 12, 2032, are double what they were at the end of January less than three weeks ago.
With an estimated diameter of 54 metres (177ft), or a little taller than Nelson’s Column in Trafalgar Square, that collision has the potential to cause enormous amounts of damage.
NASA has quietly increased the chances that the city-destroying asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032 once again (stock image)
The asteroid was discovered on December 27 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile.
Early calculations of its orbit quickly showed that there was a slim chance of the near-Earth object (NEO) making a close pass of the planet in the next decade.
However, as astronomers made more observations and arrived at a better estimation of the asteroid’s orbit, the probability of a collision continued to rise.
On January 27, 2024 YR4 truly set alarm bells ringing when it became the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one per cent.
This prompted NASA to award the asteroid a score of three on the Torino Scale, a standard measure for the danger of NEOs.
This rating is extremely rare since it can only be given to an object over 20 metres (65ft) in diameter with an impact probability greater than one per cent.
The Torino scale describes this threat as: ‘A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.’
Were the asteroid to hit Earth, NASA estimates that the explosion would be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT.
NASA now estimates that the 54 metre-wide (177ft) asteroid has a one-in-38 chance of hitting Earth. Those are the same odds as a specific number coming up on a standard American roulette wheel
That is more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
The resulting blast would be similar to that caused by the Tunguska Asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of Siberian forest in 1908 – an area more than double the size of New York.
Based on current estimates of the asteroid’s orbit, astronomers have calculated a ‘risk corridor’ of locations that could be hit if it were to collide with Earth.
This path stretches from northern South America, across sub-Saharan and North Africa, and into South Asia.
Worryingly, the risk corridor passes over eight of the world’s most populated cities, including Bogota in Colombia, Lagos in Nigeria, as well as Mumbai and Chennai in India.
Those cities alone have a combined population of over 110 million people, who could be in serious danger from an asteroid impact.
In the history of astronomy, only one other asteroid has ever been given a Torino Scale rating of three or higher – that being the 185-metre (600ft) 99942 Apophis.
Apophis, nicknamed the ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid, was briefly escalated to a four on the Torino Scale in late 2004 before rapidly dropping back towards zero.
The estimated ‘risk corridor’ for the asteroid’s impact (red line) passes over eight of the world’s 100 most populated cities, with a combined population of 110 million people
Astronomers around the world are currently holding out hope that 2024 YR4 will soon follow a similar pattern.
Most NEOs have a higher impact probability right after they are detected with the risk dropping off as scientists gather more data about their orbits.
At first, as lots of new data comes in, the probability tends to sharply increase creating the impression of a rapidly growing risk.
However, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) currently predict that this should be followed by a drop in probability once the astronomers can be more certain about the asteroid’s orbital path.
NASA spokesperson Molly Wasser wrote in a blog post: ‘As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.
‘It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s.’
She adds: ‘It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.’
Both NASA and ESA will continue to make observations of the asteroid until April at which point it will become too faint to observe until it returns around June 2028.
If the asteroid did hit Earth, the resulting blast could topple residential structures within a 8.5-mile radius (13.7 km) (shown as blue) and break windows everywhere within 24.6 miles (39.6km) (yellow)
In a rare emergency decision, ESA has also been granted access to the James Webb Space Telescope in March to better assess the risk posed by 2024 YR4.
The JWST will record the heat emitted by the asteroid using its infrared sensors which will give a more accurate estimate for its size.
Those measurements will be key to making a decision on whether action needs to be taken to divert the asteroid from its course.
If the decision is made to push the asteroid off its current course, the most likely option would be using a ‘kinetic impactor’ to push it aside by ramming a satellite into the asteroid as fast as possible.
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission showed that it was possible to significantly alter the trajectory of a large asteroid with a satellite collision.
However, with only eight years until the asteroid arrives, some scientists have cast doubt on the plan to deflect the killer asteroid.
In a post on X, Dr Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, points out that we ‘have less than eight years to potentially deal with it’.
‘You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission,’ he said.
Thousands of 9mobile customers are currently experiencing hardship due to the telecom operator’s decision to block porting requests.
Ekwutosblog gathered that for over a month, 9mobile subscribers have not been able to receive or make calls, send text or use their Sim card.
It was also learnt that the Sim card currently shows ‘No service’ or ‘emergency calls only’ nationwide.
A subscribers who spoke to our correspondents said the issue with the 9mobile network began last year and has now worsened. Subscribers also accused the telecom operator of blocking their porting requests.
Investigation by Ekwutosblog in major parts of the FCT revealed that there was no service while using a 9mobile sim.
A visit to the 9mobile Office in Kubwa and the Central Area also showed that there was no business activities going on due to unavailability of network.
A visibly angry subscriber who spoke to our correspondent said he has lost business due to the issue. He also called on the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC, to sanction 9mobile.
One of the subscribers, identified as Ifiok Samson said, ”NCC needs to sanction 9mobile and issue a directive that they should allow their customers to port to other networks.
“We have been through a lot since last year. The network has been terrible and it has worsened since 2025.
”We barely have service for two days in a week. This is my main line and I have tried to port since January but it appears that 9mobile blocked its customers from porting. When I visited their office, their representative told me they had no network. They said this lackadaisical, like it isn’t their main purpose of doing business.
”This shows that the issue is really bad. Why should customers bear the brunt of these bad services and be forced to remain with 9mobile? Please help us. We have called on NCC and FCCPC on social media, yet no one has issued a directive to this effect. We are losing money daily due to our poor choice of using 9mobile. As a regulator please save us from this bondage.”
Here are some comments Ekwutosblog gathered from X
@Ifoye, NgComCommission, ”9mobile network has been down in Ibadan for over 2 weeks with no recovery date in sight. It is also impossible to port 9mobile numbers to other networks because they require 9mobile network to be on before that can be done. Kindly see to this because the implications are many for bank account owners, business, applicants, clients with prepaid subscriptions, etc.”
@DforDust, “9mobile has been unavailable for a month, a whole month. There’s no regulatory body dragging them, there’s no message from 9mobile about what’s going on. You know how many businesses some people would have lost because of that?!”
@PrettyaganahHello NCC, Please help us in Kano. 9mobile has been down for almost a month now and we have not been informed about it and nobody is doing or saying anything. We have lost a lot of business calls, especially being our primary lines. Please intervene.”
@motexmaryam, ”I have not used WhatsApp for almost 24 hrs because I can’t verify my number with mobile.Calls, SMS nothing is entering this God forsaking sim! Tried it at 4am still no network.”
@tony_okey, ”Please, you may have to temporarily waive the authorization code requirement for porting. I haven’t had any signal for months, so I can’t port from 9mobile. Please allow us to port from 9mobile in peace.No calls or SMS. Thank God for WhatsApp.”
@SanSparkles, ‘You guys have frustrated some of us enough. Kindly reinstate your porting services so those of us who want to port from 9mobile to another network can swiftly do that.Shutting your porting service is a selfish act.”
@aysomethin, ”Where is NCC the regulators? I went to MTN Yesterday to try to port away from this 9mobile network but was told they can’t do anything until 9mobile is back on the grid. Now I am being held ransom by a telcom. Shame.”
@suleman_Tanimu, ”9mobile needs to do one thing, at least make your porting service available so that customers can port to other preferred service providers. I’ve been visiting MTN office in Abuja for the past 3 weeks and the customer care keeps telling me that 9mobile porting service is down.”
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