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OPPOSITION TOOLS TO DEFEAT THE INCUMBENT: HISTORICAL AND EMPIRICAL PERSPECTIVES

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1 year ago

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By: ONWUASOANYA FCC JONES

I do not believe in magic, because I know that magic is deceptive and as a dramatist myself, I have more than a basic understanding of what make-believe really entails. Miracle happens, but there is no absolute miracle in politics. God would rather allow us play our politics, because the last time he experimented with theocracy, there was an uprising against him, and he had to allow human king’s take over the reins in Isreal of old. So, you can understand why I can agree that God would allow some miraculous healing for an illness or even raise the dead, but insist that political success is 99% about stratagem. The man who plans the best wins the most political battles.

Politics goes hand in hand with history. Because it is one process that is repetitive. If anyone who is observant, disciplined and focused enough plays politics, chances are high he would succeed better than the man who found himself in politics and probably believes that he would be led on by chance to victory. It is only in a situation where majority of the contenders are banking on luck that the luckiest prevails, but if there are ten contenders banking on luck and just one person banking on work and stratagem, I can tell you that that one person will defeat the other ten.

Because every politics is local, I will rely on my personal experiences in Nigerian politics to discuss how the opposition, at various times within this Fourth Republic was able to unseat incumbents across States and even at the centre. There is no need pretending about it, this discourse is in relation to the upcoming Imo governorship election, and I expect that after reading this, any discerning mind would be able to advise him/herself.

Let’s take it one after each;

1. UNITY: At various times since the inception of the Fourth Republic, the opposition had sought to unseat the PDP, but like Father Ejike Mbaka would say, all those efforts ended in disgrace until all the Parties coalesced in 2012 and eventually succeeded in unseating the seemingly behemoth PDP. A disunited opposition is to the advantage of the incumbent, because no matter how unpopular an incumbent is, there is no way it wouldn’t be able to command some support and influence across a given constituency. It is an acceptable political strategy for the incumbent to sponsor division within the opposition ranks in order to deplete them. Some political observers believe that Democrats might have a hand in sponsoring the independent candidacy of RFK Kennedy, as a way of countering Donald Trump’s popularity among conservatives and unaligned voters. In relation to the upcoming Imo governorship election, you do not need to be an expert in political analysis to understand that in an election where the opposition are presenting three strong candidates, they stand no practical chance.

2. POPULAR FLAG-BEARER: Tinubu had always had an ambition to be President, but he understood that he wouldn’t fly in 2015. Even though he was the ultimate kingmaker in the newly formed APC and his support was vital to anyone who was going to emerge as the presidential candidate, he prioritised the popularity of the candidate to his personal relationships and even comfort, hence, his endorsement of General Muhammadu Buhari, who had 12 million votes in his kitty at every election. Tinubu had a lot of known ideological and political disagreements with Buhari, but he relaxed all those and focused on winning power for his Party, first. There would have been a semblance of a contest in the upcoming governorship election in Imo if a candidate like His Excellency Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha is on the ballot. The three major opposition candidates are very unpopular and scarce in the consciousness of the average Imo electorate. To make matters worse, the trio has put up the most uninspiring campaign in the history of governorship elections in Imo State. Boring radio jingles, absence of strong media hands, lack of billboards and other publicity materials across the State worsened their poor visibility among Imo voters. None of them has strong name recognition beyond their local villages and wards and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if they lose their LGAs in this election.

3. INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT: Running an election against an incumbent is similar to trying to lead a revolution and rarely has any revolution succeeded without defections from among the ruling class or at least, some discreet support from those within the ruling system. The incumbent is naturally expected to wield good influence on all institutions necessary for the election. But a serious opposition should be able to infiltrate these institutions. For instance in the run-up to the 2019 election, the then opposition leaders like His Excellency Distinguished Senator Hope Uzodimma and His Excellency Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha had great influence on vital institutions. I was beaten up and detained at the Imo Airport during the primaries of the APC, because I was alarmed by the fact that the opposition had hijacked the security of the process and I raised alarm. I was beaten mercilessly, teargassed and thrown into detention. On the election day proper, one didn’t need to be told that Chief Ihedioha neutered the INEC and some of the security agents deployed for the election. Operatives of the incumbent system like us were left stranded and gasping for breath. Today, none of the opposition governorship candidates can boast of the kind of strategic relationship and sympathy that could sway these institutions. Governor Uzodimma has done his homework so well that even if there is a totally free and fair election today, he will still win with a landslide.

4. CREATIVE CAMPAIGNING: All the creative campaign events happening in Imo State are by the incumbent. If one support group is not holding a massive inauguration ceremony, another group would be organising a football tournament at the grassroots level, or an empowerment programme would be going on at another venue. The few opposition candidates who make attempts at campaigning only organise the usually boring campaign rallies which unfortunately command unimpressive crowd, mostly hired. When the APC were angling for power at the centre, they started with many creative campaign initiatives, including protest marches, and several social events. Instead of the opposition, it is rather the ruling Party that is charging up the system with various indirect but impactful campaign events across the State.

5. CAMPAIGN MAKEUP: A viable opposition should possess the qualities of an alternative government. A campaign organisation has some similarities with a football club; names play vital roles in strengthening the confidence of supporters and financiers to go along with such candidates. Among the four surviving past governors in Imo State, two are actively campaigning for the incumbent, while two are seemingly not interested, but those who know, are not confused about where their sympathy lies. None of the opposition camps has in his employ top players in election management, contact and mobilisation, media, publicity or strategy. When you look at the makeup of the campaign team of these opposition candidates, you wouldn’t help but laugh yourself to tears over the dry comedy that these campaign teams are.

MAY IMO WIN!

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Nigeria Customs Set to Introduce Automated Transire Process, Sensitises Officers, Stakeholders

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19 hours ago

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March 15, 2025

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The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is set to introduce an Automated Transire Process (ATP), a system designed to enhance trade efficiency, minimise delays, and curb cargo diversion.

Speaking at a sensitisation session at Apapa Area Command on Thursday, 10 March 2025, the Comptroller-General of Customs (CGC), Adewale Adeniyi, represented by the Zonal Coordinator, Zone A, Assistant Comptroller-General of Customs (ACG) Charles Orbih, described the initiative as a transformative development for the NCS.

He stated, “This is not merely a technological upgrade; it represents a strategic shift aimed at positioning the Nigeria Customs Service and the nation at the forefront of global trade efficiency, security, and transparency.”

He further explained that the Automated Transire Process, developed in-house by NCS ICT officers, is expected to significantly reduce customs clearance times, enhance tracking capabilities, and improve accountability.

ACG Orbih emphasised that real-time tracking and data transparency would mitigate the risks associated with cargo diversion while boosting stakeholders’ confidence in the system.

He added that faster access to goods at ports and terminals would benefit importers, exporters, and all players in the logistics chain.

Reflecting on the initiative’s origins, the Zonal Coordinator recalled that the automation project stemmed from a directive issued during last year’s CGC conference, where the ICT/Modernisation Department was tasked with automating the transfer process by the first quarter of 2025. This milestone has now been achieved.

The Deputy Comptroller-General in charge of ICT/Modernisation, DCG Kikelomo Adeola, represented by ACG Zanna Gaji, further outlined the project’s benefits.

He remarked, “This system will enhance efficiency and transparency, improve revenue collection, and minimise opportunities for corruption by ensuring a fair and predictable process.”

He noted that the automation would strengthen Nigeria’s position in global trade and promote international best practices.

ACG Gaji stressed that the rollout would be gradual, beginning with a user acceptance test and a pilot phase at one of the bonded terminals.

“We cannot introduce the system immediately. It is essential to engage stakeholders, conduct hands-on testing, and refine the system based on feedback,” he stated.

During the feedback session, Area Controllers within the Apapa environs underscored the importance of incorporating all relevant units and addressing the absence of a watchlist feature.

Stakeholders also sought clarification on the official launch date and requested adjustments to align the system more effectively with operational requirements.

In response, Assistant Comptroller of Customs Usman Abba, the team leader of the ATP development project, assured attendees that the system would be fully integrated with all relevant units, departments, and commands before full implementation.

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Senator Natasha’s action blocking chances of women in leadership – Igbo group warns

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3 days ago

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March 13, 2025

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Igbo United Professionals (IUP) has warned that the actions of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan is capable of blocking the chances of women to be supported, recommended or elected into positions of authority.

The group made the statement in a press release signed by its President, Chief Emmanuel Ikechukwu-Jonathan and issued to newsmen in Enugu.

The IUP said that Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan is trying to institute a precedent of weaponizing the female gender against their men counterparts.

According to the statement, “Natasha’s action of going about lying, that she was suspended because she alleged that the Senate President, Senator Godswill Akpabio, sexually harassed her, is capable of undermining the full actualization of the 35 percent affirmative action that has started gaining attention.

“Her petition for sexual harassment was rightfully discountenanced because it failed to meet the clear and established procedural requirements for submitting petitions to the Senate.

“The rules of the Senate apply to all members without exception and no petition-regardless of its subject-can be considered if it does not follow due process.

“Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan is not only chasing shadows, but destroying the commendable efforts of female leaders working tirelessly to build public trust on the side of women, to place them as dependable partners.”

The IUP reminded Nigerians and the international community that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan’s six months suspension was because of her flagrant violation of the rules of the Senate due to the reallocation of her seat by the leadership of the Senate.

The group said, “We have facts of the reasons for her suspension. Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan was suspended solely for her persistent acts of misconduct, blatant disregard for the provisions of the Senate Standing Orders 2023 (As Amended) and gross indiscipline- nothing more, nothing less.

“The suspension was decision of the Committee of the whole Senate, following the submission of a report by the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Ethics and Privileges. The report found her guilty of violating Sections 6.1 and 6.2 of the Senate Rules and recommended her immediate suspension.

“The disciplinary action was a response to Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan’s repeated violations of legislative decorum, including:

“Refusing to sit in her assigned seat during plenary on 25th February 2025, despite multiple pleas from the Minority Leader and other ranking Senators-an act of open defiance and disorderly conduct.

“Speaking without being recognized by the presiding officer, in clear violation of parliamentary practices and procedures on 25th February 2025.

“Engaging in unruly and disruptive behavior, obstructing the orderly conduct of Senate proceedings.

“Making abusive and disrespectful remarks against the leadership of the Senate.

“Defying and refusing to comply with the summons of the Senate Committee on Ethics and Privileges mandated to investigate cases of misconduct,”

The IUP said that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan’s actions no doubt, represented a direct challenge to the Authority of the Senate, and a violation of the Senate Standing Orders 2023 (As Amended), that govern the business of the Senate and the conduct of its members.

IUP added that the disciplinary measure was, therefore, necessary and justified to restore order and uphold the integrity of the Senate as the country’s foremost democratic institution.

The IUP maintained that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan should do well to provide evidences of her sexual harassment by the Senate President, if there’s any, and prove before the court of Law, instead of going about blackmailing the sanctity of Nigeria’s Senate.

The group urged women leaders and bodies to rise up and condemn actions capable of placing women in contrast position with their male counterparts, adding that such would build distrust and fear of supporting women to occupy sensitive positions.

While noting that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan seemed not to be acquainted with the Senate rules and regulations, the IUP urged her to do well to study the Senate rules during her six-month suspension and equally subject herself to trainings on better ways of handling and managing leadership positions.

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Some of you that are complaining that Governor Soludo is doing too much might not have been born in 1984 when President Buhari Introduced WAR AGAINST INDISCIPLINE (WAI) In Nigeria

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6 days ago

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March 10, 2025

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Some are arguing that Governor Soludo shouldn’t have any business with how people decide to observe their religion… That nobody is a kid.

Let me Take you back to History, A Young President Buhari woke up one morning in 1984 and felt like Nigerians are too undisciplined and decided to discipline everybody, if you think I’m lying, ask your parents.

That year, Almost everything you want to do in public places, you must stand in a queue. If People want to enter a bus ,oya attention!.. your hands on your neighbours’ shoulders, if plenty of people want to buy something from a particular Shop,Oya !.. In a straight line!..
Markets,bus stops and public places were not Rowdy, Everybody’s senses returned from their holidays.

Don’t you think we may be needing such exercises in Today’s main markets.?

If you feel like you are too stubborn to obey, Trust the military government na. Your body go tell you .

So Fear Government. Government is the God we see, some even argue that GOD simply means Government of the day.
The government is so powerful that they can wake up one morning and make a declaration that every man should be having gtiufjiidegjkgf once every week,…imana church Agbasago!!

Have you forgotten how Tinubu woke up one day and asked everyone to go and learn our old national anthem.. some people thought it was a joke.

That is why the Christian Holy book Prescribes you pray for those in authority so that they will not wake up one morning and declare that your family compound is now a motor park, you will think it’s a joke until you go there the next day and conductors are there shouting “Agulu!!.. Nanka!! .. Ekwulobia!!

Written by Admin Nkwelle.

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