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Presidential candidate opens up lead in the betting odds

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The former president leads Harris in four of the six major betting markets
Trump also leads the polling averages in three key swing states
The lead is Trump’s highest with the bookmakers since August 22
Donald Trump has opened up a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets after the vice president had been gaining momentum all the way into a tie with the former president.

According to Real Clear Polling, which aggregates half a dozen gambling sources on the election, Trump now has a 49.7% chance of winning, leading Harris (48.8%) by less than a point. It’s Trump’s largest lead since August 22.

The pair were tied as recently as August 31, after Harris had come from just a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris announced her own run.

Of the six bookmakers in RCP’s aggregate, only PredictIt (53%) shows Harris with a clear lead.

Trump and Harris are tied in the Bwin betting markets but Trump holds a lead over the ex-California Senator in the other four, with Bovada giving him a 52% chance of victory.

 

Donald Trump has opened up a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets after the vice president had been gaining momentum all the way into a tie with the former president

 

The pair were tied as recently as August 31, after Harris had come from just a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris announced her own run

 

Polling still shows Harris with a slight advantage, as the vice president has a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP’s polling averages.

However, Trump leads the polling average in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada.

The vice president leads the averages in the other three swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If all other results held from the 2020 election and those states went the way of the averages, Harris would have exactly 270 electoral votes pending Nevada’s result.

However, the latest swing state polling suggests that Kamala Harris has received little to no convention boost, showing Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in several crucial swing states.

A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest contests – considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada – show Trump either in the lead or even with Harris.

Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania and 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, two states that flipped to red in 2016 when Trump won before flipping back to Democrats in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.

The Trafalgar survey, which is considered by polling aggregators to lean Republican, also shows Harris almost even with Trump in Michigan, with the former president eking out a 47% to 46.6% lead.

Trump leads the polling average in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada

 

Polling still shows Harris with a slight advantage, as the vice president has a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP’s polling averages

 

Michigan was another state that Trump took from Hillary Clinton in 2016 before ceding to Biden four years later.

A separate survey by Insider Advantage shows Trump up by one point in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%) with Harris and Trump level at 48% in Georgia.

Both campaigns are targeting independent and undecided voters in the seven key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris and vice presidential nominee Tim Walz spent Labor Day in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, including one event with Biden, while Trump did not make a public appearance.

Similarly to Harris, Trump also did not experience the usual post-Convention bounce after the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in July.

The stagnant nature of the standing between Trump and Harris is indicative of the locked-in nature of the highly polarized 2024 race as the campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.

Trump leads in top concerns that voters care about heading into the election, including an 8 percent advance in trust to address the economy and soaring inflation and a 9 point lead in handling immigration at the southern border.

The candidates’ running mates are head-to-head with only one percentage point division of those who think they are prepared to be president if needed. Walz has 50 percent confidence compared to the 49 percent earned by Vance.

But a quarter of survey respondents were not ready to express their opinion of either Walz or Vance.

Much of this week’s narrative appears set to preview the September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, televised by ABC News.

Trump will appear at a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on September 4.

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2027: Don’t fall for Tinubu’s tricks, Timi Frank warns Northern, Southern leaders

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A former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Comrade Timi Frank, has warned northern and southern leaders against being fooled by President Bola Tinubu’s tricks to grab power in 2027.

Frank made the call in a statement issued Wednesday.

He said while Tinubu is on the one hand blackmailing southerners, especially opposition governors on the platform of the PDP, Labour Party and All Progressives Grand Alliance by playing the ethnic card to gain support, he is on the other hand threatening to deal with them if they fail to support him by declaring a state of emergency in their states.

Frank added that 2027 should not be about North or South but who would fix the myriads of challenges confronting the country.

He said: “He has increased the intensity now by blackmailing, intimidating and putting at least five PDP Governors from the South under duress to defect along with their Members in the National Assembly to the APC.

“To Tinubu, the 2027 election is about him versus the North and that is why he is trying desperately to enlist the support of the South through manipulation and subterfuge. He has forgotten so soon that the North helped him to get to power in 2023.

“Nigerians are in need of a President who will help Nigeria become better, not ‘Northern candidate or Southern candidate’ or ‘Northern President or Southern President’.

“The country is overcharged already with divisions along ethnic lines. We therefore can’t afford to have a President who is setting one region against another for the sake of his own personal ambition.

“For me, Timi Frank, as a Southerner, I don’t believe in tribalistic and a divisive president. I believe in a leader that will come and unite rather than divide Nigeria.

“I advise every Northerner still supporting Tinubu to have a rethink. They should know that the North that apparently ‘assisted’ Tinubu to gain power in 2023 are suffering the most today.

“It is a fact that the north has been grossly sidelined in appointments and other infrastructure development programmes by Tinubu who has prioritised his personal and tribal life interests over the everything else.”

“This is why the North should wake up. They should know this route Tinubu is going in terms of 2027 politics, is not the best for Nigeria. They should rise and speak with one voice in 2027.

“I want the Northern leaders to know that should Tinubu find his way back to power in 2027, the North will suffer untold neglect as Tinubu and the APC don’t have their genuine interest at heart.

“As we speak, at least five opposition governors are set to defect to APC not because they like Tinubu but due to intense political pressure, intimidation and blackmail, while those who will remain have been made to sign undertakings to deliver their states to Tinubu otherwise they will be made to lose their second terms elections.

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‎150 PDP, LP members defect to APC in Enugu, back Utazi’s suspension

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‎At least 150 members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) have defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Enugu State, strengthening the opposition party.

‎Prominent defectors include Peter Okonkwo, former Commissioner for Local Government; Nonso Ochi, LP’s 2023 Awgu North candidate; Onyeka Chukwuedo, PDP Awgu South aspirant; Chief John Edeh, PDP Nkanu West aspirant; Chief Tony Chigbo, former Uzo-Uwani LGA Chairman; and Emeka Abba, LP chieftain from Udenu.

‎The defectors were welcomed during an expanded stakeholders’ meeting at the APC’s state secretariat on Saturday. A communiqué stated, “The leaders note with excitement that our party has witnessed significant growth with the influx of new members in the last year. The number of new decampees that we received today is evidence of such an influx across the local government areas and wards.”

‎Stakeholders endorsed the indefinite suspension of Senator Chuka Utazi by his Nkpologu ward and Uzo-Uwani LGA for alleged anti-party activities, urging the State Executive Committee to ratify it

‎They accused the Peter Mbah-led government of failing to address killings in Uzo-Uwani and Isi-Uzo, stating, “The party declared that the Peter Mbah-led government has failed in its primary duty of protecting lives and property… the huge population of the citizens in the rural areas are left at the mercy of killer herdsmen and other criminals.”

‎The APC praised Minister Uche Nnaji for securing federal projects, jobs, and welfare packages, including Easter rice and 2024 farming fertilisers. They dismissed former chairman Ben Nwoye’s resignation, noting: “One cannot be resigning from a party that he or she is no longer a member of since 2023.”

‎The meeting reaffirmed loyalty to President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda, urging Igbo support.


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US: ‘National disgrace’ – Lawmakers lament detention of students by Trump govt

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US Congressional lawmakers have lamented the treatment of students, Mahmoud Khalil and Rümeysa Öztürk, being detained by US immigration authorities.

The students are being kept in detention for their pro-Palestinian activism.

The lawmakers described the US government’s action as a “national disgrace” as they visited the two facilities in Louisiana where each are being held.

Addressing the press after the visit on Tuesday, Louisiana congressman, Troy Carter, said, “We stand firm with them in support of free speech.

“They are frightened, they’re concerned, they want to go home.”

The students, Öztürk doing his PhD at Tufts University and Khalil, a graduate of Columbia have been in detention for more than a month.

Members of the delegation noted that the students were being held in violation of their constitutional rights.

The delegation included representatives Carter, Bennie Thompson, Ayanna Pressley, Jim McGovern, Senator Ed Markey, and Alanah Odoms, the executive director of the ACLU of Louisiana.

They met with the two detainees and others as they conducted “real-time oversight” of a “rogue and lawless” administration, as Pressley said.

“It’s a national disgrace what is taking place,” Markey said.

“We stand right now at a turning point in American history. The constitution is being eroded by the Trump administration. We saw today here in these detention centers in Louisiana examples of how far [it] is willing to go,” he said.

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