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Protests: Tinubu’s Real Troubles Are Just Beginning – Farooq Kperogi

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In light of his planned astronomical hike in petrol prices euphemistically called “subsidy removal” in 2023, which his opponents also promised to implement and caused Nigerians embrace as inevitable and desirable, I foretold the imminent social convulsion that is gathering momentum across Nigeria now.

“I can assure Tinubu that if petrol price hikes deepen people’s misery, he’ll have a tough time governing,” I wrote in my April 29, 2023, column. I followed this up with more than half a dozen columns on the same theme.

When you remove subsidies from an all-important product like petrol that literally regulates every facet of life in a country like Nigeria, which also has the dubious honor of being in perpetual competition with India for the status of the world’s poverty capital, and then follow it up with a massive devaluation of the national currency even when the country is hopelessly import-dependent, you unleash existential demons that compel vast swaths of people to choose between life and death.

False assurances that the mass agony in the country is only temporary, or that the pains people are grappling with are mere precursors to future gains, or even that there is light at the end of the tunnel only aggravate people’s angst. There are two reasons for this.

One, most people know that based on past experiences in Nigeria (notably during IBB’s ruinous SAP, which Tinubu merely repurposed and renamed) and elsewhere in the developing world where the IMF and the World Bank dictate economic policies, there has never been a single example of these sorts of pains ever transforming into gains for the masses of the people.

Second, people outside the circles of power and privilege realize that the pains are being borne only by the poor.

Tinubu, for example, bought a new presidential jet worth millions of dollars even before the spineless National Assembly had a chance to rubber-stamp it, as is now their wont, among other profligate expenditures amid a biting economic downturn.

People who are visiting darkness on the poor in the name of a deferred light at the end of the tunnel are glowing in incandescent bulbs of illumination. And the people are intelligent enough to know that what awaits them at the end of this disconsolate tunnel isn’t light. It’s an inferno. It’s a dreary snake pit of doom and gloom.

When people come to this realization, no one needs to “sponsor” them to protest. The pangs of hunger they feel is sufficient to sponsor them to protest. The sensation of hopelessness that overcomes them is a bigger motive force for protest than the political machinations of any politician.

But even if it’s true that opposition politicians are taking advantage of the mass discontent in the country to cripple the government and delegitimize it for their self-interest, that’s not illegal. It’s an intrinsic element of democracies for opposition parties to seize on the missteps of incumbents to displace them.

President Tinubu is in power today precisely because he mastered the art of instrumentalizing the missteps of incumbents to advance his political aspirations. As recently as 2012, he “sponsored” a disruptive protest against former President Goodluck Jonathan that led to the deaths of protesters—for precisely what he is doing to Nigerians now.

No amount of persuasion or financial inducement of traditional rulers, religious clerics, union leaders, or activists will get people to make peace with needless suffering occasioned by a self-centered, hard-hearted implementation of vicious economic policies that snuff the life out of the people. Even if the planned protests are aborted, the predictable is only being postponed.

The only way Tinubu can retain legitimacy and earn the trust of the people is to reverse the deep, stinging hurt his policies have caused to the vast majority of our people. People are no longer interested in progress or the renewal of hope. They just want Tinubu to take them back to where he met them, which was not an enviable state. And that’s not too much to ask.

In a February 10, 2024, column titled “Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari,” I said the spontaneous, hunger-induced eruption of seething communal anger in Minna, Suleja, Kano, and Osogbo were “a warning sign” that Tinubu couldn’t afford to ignore. He ignored it.

He is probably following the Buhari template of enacting unpopular policies and relying on the blind support of his worshipers to shield him from the consequences of his actions. But Tinubu has no such following, and I am glad he doesn’t, which is why I would hate for someone like Peter Obi or Rabiu Kwankwaso to be president.

They are political cult leaders with unthinking, fanatical followers who lose their damned minds if you as much utter the mildest critical remark about their gods, however factual it may be. Like Buharists, they have abdicated their senses to their political gods.

I reproduce here a portion of the column to remind Tinubu why he can’t benefit from the kind of immunity Buhari enjoyed:

“Had the current president been Muhammadu Buhari and not Bola Ahmed Tinubu, chances are that the worst that would happen amid the adversity people are going through now would be suppressed, barely audible murmurs. It’s because Buhari is a political cult leader with a firm grip on his followers who worship him and surrender responsibility for their lives over to him. Tinubu has no such appeal.

“A psychologist by the name of Steve Taylor came up with a concept he called ‘abdication syndrome,’ which he said disposes people to invest total, child-like trust in a political figure, a cult leader, an opinion molder, etc. in ways that mimic how children idealize and idolize their parents as unblemished paragons of perfection.

“According to Taylor, ‘abdication syndrome stems from the unconscious desire of some people to return to a state of early childhood, when their parents were infallible, omnipotent figures who controlled their lives and protected them from the world. They’re trying to rekindle that childhood state of unconditional devotion and irresponsibility.’

“Buhari is lucky to benefit from abdication syndrome in Muslim northern Nigeria, broadly conceived, which explains why he got away with murder for eight years. When he increased petrol prices by a steep margin in 2016, for instance, there were protests in Kano, Bauchi, and other places in SUPPORT of the increase and AGAINST people who planned to protest the increase. Nigeria had never seen anything like that before.

“Even protests against the unabating descent of northern Nigeria into a theater of bloodshed and abduction on Buhari’s watch provoked counter protests from people who have abdicated the use of their brains in the service of Buhari.

“Tinubu not only does not have the benefit of abdication syndrome anywhere in Nigeria, but he also has the misfortune of having to contend with a peculiar character of Muslim northern Nigeria: we feel the pain of, and react violently to, bad policies only when the policies are hatched and executed by people who have no filiation with our natal region.

“It’s no surprise that the hunger protests against the Tinubu administration started from and spread in the North.

“A powerful indication of Tinubu’s lack of firm emotional support base emerged when Osun, his state of birth where he lost the last presidential election to PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, became the first southern state to join the hunger protests. Should the resistance to his punishingly heartless neoliberal economic policies ignite a nationwide convulsion, the Southwest is unlikely to constitute itself as his bulwark.

“In fact, I hazard a guess that should Tinubu’s unfeeling policies activate the sort of destabilizing national upheaval that we saw in 2012 during Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, the Southwest won’t be aloof. It is likely to join in.

“And, of course, Tinubu is deeply unpopular in the Southeast, the South-south, and Christian northern Nigeria. In other words, Tinubu is essentially floundering into the most treacherous of social quicksands.

“His only fortification against danger is not just good governance but compassionate governance. The release of thousands of metric tons of grains is a good first step, but it’s not nearly enough to stem the tide of mass rebellion that is brewing in the country. At best, it will only delay the inevitable.

“The truth is that Nigeria can’t survive a total withdrawal of petroleum subsidies without an adequate, systematic, well-planned public transportation system. To do away with petrol subsidies, the government must first create conditions where car ownership and patronage of commercial transportation are a luxury.”

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Next Imo governor to emerge by consensus, says ex-Minister

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Erstwhile Minister of Interior and retired Merchant Navy Captain, Emmanuel Iheanacho, has disclosed that the Imo Harmony Project (IHP) is working round the clock to ensure orderliness in the leadership recruitment in Imo State.

He noted that contrary to insinuations in some quarters, IHP and other groups rooting for equity in the distribution of political positions through zoning, are in agreement that the rotation of the office of the governor is necessary to sustain peace, harmony, and development.

Iheanacho, who spoke to select journalists, on Monday, explained that the single agenda of the Imo Harmony Project is to bring all stakeholders to agree that the next governor of the state hails from Owerri zone, adding that so far the argument is enjoying widespread acceptance.

He remarked that the challenge of developing a governance blueprint belongs to the core politicians, maintaining that IHP is a non-partisan movement focused on peaceful leadership recruitment that eliminates rancour and violence after elections.

As to whether the IHP could end up as the covert structure to feather the electoral cap of any of the protagonists, Iheanacho, who contested the governorship in 2015, declared: “If anybody within IHP has an ambition and we have actually seen ourselves, people who have ambitions to become governor from IHP.

“We will tell them when the time comes you have to break out and go and set up a structure and then bring the resources, do your campaign. If you are accepted, you’ve won.”

He disclosed that the group has also met with Governor Uzodimma to explain the rationale for the adoption of a charter of equity, pointing out that the governor was very receptive to the proposition.

The retired Captain explained that despite initial misgivings by some Imo politicians, the incumbent governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma, has proved skeptics wrong by the quality of infrastructure projects his administration embarked upon.

“So, the future of Imo politics is to ensure seamless development. I spoke about the quality of the infrastructure that the governor has committed himself to. And I said, flowing from that, we are hoping that he will move forward and develop a proper economy,” he said.

“What I meant by developing a proper economy? If you know what has happened since 1999 to all the governments in all the states, if you win the election to become the governor, you have become rich beyond your wildest dreams, because the money that is given to the state from the centre absolutely belongs to you. Officially that is not the case.

“But in reality, governors do whatever they like. And we haven’t seen anybody who has been interdicted or prosecuted for spending money the way that they like. So, what I said was that it would be nice for the governor to move from a situation where he is building all those infrastructures from monies that are given from the centre, to one where we actually develop an economy.”

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High court dismisses Kwankwaso faction’s suit challenging NNPP leadership

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A High Court in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, has rejected a lawsuit filed by a faction aligned with Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, which sought to challenge the leadership of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) under Chief Dr. Boniface Aniebonam and National Chairman Dr. Agbo Major.

The lawsuit, initiated by Dr. Ahmed Ajuji and 20 other individuals, aimed to invalidate the authority of the NNPP’s Board of Trustees (BoT) and its executive leadership, including Barr. Tony Christopher Obioha, National Secretary Comrade Oginni Olaposi, and Deputy National Chairman Chief Felix Chukwurah.

The plaintiffs requested that the court prevent these leaders from holding meetings, organizing congresses, or overseeing the party’s National Convention, asserting that they had been expelled from the party.

However, Justice M.A. Hassan ruled that the court lacked jurisdiction to hear the case, emphasizing that internal matters such as party leadership and membership fall outside the court’s purview.

“The law, as affirmed by both the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, is clear: courts do not intervene in internal political party matters, except when it concerns the nomination of election candidates,” Justice Hassan stated.

This ruling follows a similar decision from the Abia State High Court (Suit No.: HUZ/11/2024) on November 1, 2024, which had reaffirmed the legitimacy of the NNPP’s Board of Trustees led by Dr. Boniface Aniebonam and upheld the validity of the party’s congresses and National Convention.

Defendants’ counsel, Segun Fiki Esq., praised the judgment, calling the case an attempt to manipulate the party’s leadership through the legal system.

“The court’s decision is clear—this is a matter outside its jurisdiction. The NNPP’s legitimate leadership has been affirmed, and we now expect the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to recognize and cooperate with the duly elected officials of the party,” Fiki said.

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I’m healthier than those wishing me death – Wike declares

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The Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike on Thursday declared that he is healthier than those wishing him dead.

Wike also vowed to signed the condolence letters of those behind the rumours of his death.

Several posts on the social media had claimed that Wike collapsed last week and was flown to France for treatment.

The minister had dismissed the claims,stressing that they were the handiwork of baseless politicians.

Addressing journalists in Abuja on Thursday after inspecting some projects, Wike insisted that he met with President Bola Tinubu twice last week amid the claims of his collapse.

“The day Mr President broke Iftar during his birthday, I was there and the next day, I led Abuja residents to pay Sallah homage.

 

“I see all those stories, this is politics but we have thick skin so those things don’t bother us. We are never distracted but focused on our jobs.

“I thank Nigerians for being worried. People should not wish their fellow human beings such things.

“We know that we will all die one day and nobody will remain in this world forever, it’s only God that will say the day you will die.

“Don’t bother yourselves, I’m healthier than most of them and I will write their condolence letters, I can assure you of that.”

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