Politics
How North Korea is changing Russia’s war in Ukraine
Signs are mounting that North Korean soldiers are fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine. Kyiv is already talking about a new war party. In what ways could heightened North Korean-Russian ties affect the war?
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Pyongyang to discuss a security partnership with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Prior to this, there had been rumors of extensive North Korean arms deliveries to Russia. And as early as 2023, the Ukrainian military intelligence had reported that a limited North Korean military contingent had arrived in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.
Now, latest findings by South Korean national intelligence service (NIS) indicate that the North Korean-Russian ties have reached new heights.
North Korean soldiers in Russia
According to a report published last Friday, Pyongyang wants to provide up to 12,000 soldiersfor Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Of these, 1,500 were said to have already disembarked in the Russian port city of Vladivostok. Meanwhile, the NIS has upped this number to around 3,000 soldiers.
It would appear that North Korean soldiers are to be issued Russian uniforms in order to conceal their identity. DW’s fact-checking team was able to confirm that the footage provided by the NIS shows locations in Russia’s eastern military districts.
Neither Russia nor North Korea have yet officially confirmed the findings.
“At the moment, there is little concrete information and a lot of vague speculation,” Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, told DW.
“But there is no doubt that North Koreans are in Russia for training,” he added. “And there is also no doubt that for some time now (…) construction units of the North Korean armed forces have been active in the occupied territories in Ukraine.”
And yet, he also cautions not to draw the conclusion that 12,000 North Korean soldiers were now fighting in Russian trenches across Ukraine. “That’s not what we’ve been observing so far,” he said.
As of now, neither North Korean leader Kim Jong Un nor Russia’s President Vladimir Putin have confirmed shipments of weapons or the deployment of soldiers.
© Vladimir Smirnov/POOL/TASS/dpa/picture alliance
Western restraint
From a Ukrainian perspective, however, all of this is still a concerning development.
While Russia’s head of state Putin presented himself as a respectable host at the BRICS summit this week, Kyiv is growing increasingly worried over waning support for Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” has so far failed to gain traction. Furthermore, Ukraine fears that Republican nominee Donald Trump, who wants to cut arms aid and recently blamed the Ukrainian president for Russia’s invasion, will win the US presidential election in early November.
As of now, it remains to be seen in what way the US will handle an escalation in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Washington is, after all, not only the biggest supporter of Ukraine, but also a protective power for South Korea.
The US was the first NATO member to refer to “evidence” of the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. But beyond that, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has kept rather quiet.
The North Korean-Russian ties will likely be an issue for the upcoming US administration — whether under Republican or Democratic leadership.
Lange believes that Europe is waiting to see what the outcome of the US elections will be.
“At the moment, I don’t see the major European states coming together to develop a common strategy: What do we want to achieve in Ukraine? How will we deal with Russia and Russia’s supporters? How can we achieve this together? That’s what we’d need,” he said.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed that North Korea has decided to send troops to Russia
© Sopa/Sipa/picture alliance
Europe’s failure
On Wednesday, NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhallah in Brussels told DW that if North Korean troops were indeed designated to fight in Ukraine, “it would mark a significant escalation in North Korea’s support for Russia’s illegal war and yet another sign of Russia’s significant losses on the front lines.” She added that the alliance was actively consulting on the matter.
According to Roderich Kiesewetter of the German Christian Democratic Union, Germany’s largest opposition party in the Bundestag, it was a “fatal omission” that Europe had not yet reacted to North Korea’s suspected troop deployment.
A united and decisive reaction of strength and deterrence is absolutely necessary, he told DW. “Many European countries have wanted this for a long time,” he added. Germany also had to alter its stance, he said, by reducing range restrictions on delivered weapons, providing more weapons systems to Ukraine, and issuing an invitation to join the NATO alliance.
Meanwhile, Berlin’s Federal Foreign Office summoned North Korea’s chargé d’affaires on Wednesday. In the meeting, Berlin made clear that supporting Russia’s war of aggression posed a threat to German security and peace in Europe.
Temporary ties
Earlier in October, when the indications of deeper Russian-North Korean cooperation began to intensify, DW spoke to Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul.
“Russia may benefit from this to avoid mobilization,” he told DW, adding that “if you look at it from the Russian point of view, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is fighting a war that is generally popular in Russia, but only on the one condition that the majority of the population is kept out of the fighting and is not ‘disturbed’ from its day-to-day life by the war.”
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has sworn to cut back foreign spending, which would affect Ukraine’s war efforts against Russia
© Shannon Stapleton/REUTERS
In his view, fewer and fewer men in Russia are prepared to put their lives on the line, even for financial benefits such as those offered in army contracts.
North Korea, on the other hands, wants money and technology for sending its soldiers.
“Right now, a private in the Russian military gets $2,000 (€1850) a month plus a signing-on bonus that can be as much as $20,000 (€18,500). If North Korea gets half of that figure for every soldier it provides, then Pyongyang will be very happy,” Lankov said.
Furthermore, North Korea is eyeing Russia’s modern technology.
“Under different circumstances, Russia would never be willing to share technology with such an unstable country, but now it has no other choice,” Lankov added.
However, in his view, this cooperation is not meant to last. Instead, after the end of the war in Ukraine, Lankov expected relations to return to their previous level, as North Korea ceases to be of economic interest to Moscow.
Rayna Breuer contributed to this article, which was translated from German.
Author: David Ehl, Julian Ryall
Politics
Niger Explosion: Governance must prioritize human lives through proactive policies – Peter Obi
Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine will never recognise occupied Ukrainian territories as being part of Russia, even if pressured to do so by allies, dampening hopes that Donald Trump may be able to strike a peace deal.
‘No matter what anyone wants, even if all the allies in the world unite, we will never recognise the occupied territories [as part of Russia]. This is impossible,’ the Ukrainian president emphasised.
‘We will not legally recognise them. For us, they will always remain occupied territories until we liberate them.’
Trump, who took office for a second term on Monday and was last in power before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has repeatedly said he could end the war swiftly, without specifying how.
His newly-appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that ending the war was a priority for the president, but would only be possible if both sides make significant concessions.
‘Anytime you bring an end to a conflict between two sides, neither of whom can achieve their maximum goals, each side is going to have to give up something,’ he told CNN, adding that ultimately the decision would be down to the Ukrainians and Russians.
It comes after Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said today that Moscow sees a small window of opportunity to forge agreements with the new US administration.
‘We cannot say anything today about the degree of the incoming administration’s capacity to negotiate, but still, compared to the hopelessness in every aspect of the previous White House chief (Joe Biden), there is a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one,’ Ryabkov said, according to Interfax.
Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine will never recognise occupied Ukrainian territories as being part of Russia
Donald Trump, who took office for a second term on Monday, has said he could end the war swiftly, without specifying how
A Russian soldier fires a self-propelled gun
‘It’s therefore important to understand with what and whom we will have to deal, how best to build relations with Washington, how best to maximise opportunities and minimise risks,’ he said, speaking at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, a think-tank in Moscow.
Trump warned on Tuesday that he would likely impose more sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate to end the nearly three-year-old conflict.
He gave no details on the possible additional sanctions on Russia, which is already under significant Western sanctions over the war.
The new president also issued a blow to the Kremlin on Tuesday, accusing Putin of ‘destroying Russia‘ with his failed war as he urged him to ‘make a deal’ to end the conflict.
‘He has to make a deal. I think he is destroying Russia by not making a deal,’ Trump said in a stark warning to the dictator.
‘I think Russia is going to be in big trouble,’ he added, saying that Putin ‘can’t be thrilled that he’s not doing so well.’
‘I mean, he works hard, but most people thought the war would be over in about a week, and now it’s been three years, right?’
The Russian economy was sinking, he went on, with inflation a major threat.
Putin, 72, earlier said he was ready to engage with Trump but still insisted on an outcome favouring Russia.
‘We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing here is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis,’ said the Russian ruler. An initial phone call is expected by Moscow to take place soon.
Trump said Zelensky was ready for a deal to halt the debilitating conflict, and the 78-year-old US leader said he planned to meet Putin with whom he had a ‘great relationship’ during his first term.
‘We’re going to try to do it as quickly as possible. You know, the war between Russia and Ukraine should never have started.’
Trump warned on Tuesday that he would likely impose more sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate to end the nearly three-year-old conflict
After months of Ukraine occupying parts of Russia’s Kursk region as it aims to improve its position in the event of talks, Zelensky stated that any dialogue could only go ahead with Kyiv in a position of strength.
‘Putin cannot be treated as legitimate in this situation. He has violated everything. He must understand his transgression,’ the Ukrainian president said today, adding that if Putin was ‘approached as an equal – that would be a loss for Ukraine.’
But, he said, his government’s top priority was to find a way to halt the war, which has claimed the lives of at least 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers, according to figures released by Ukraine in December.
‘We must find all possible ways to end the hot phase of the war. This is the number one issue,’ Zelensky said.
‘There can be many talks, but the main goal is to stop the active phase. This is the first guarantee of security.’
Russia has occupied Crimea since its 2014 invasion of the territory. Months later it took large parts of the Donbas region, launching a was under the guise of a separatist uprising.
Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian forces have controlled large swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, since a surprise attack in August, Kyiv’s forces occupy around 600 sq km of Russian territory.
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